And How They Influenced the Currency Market…
As long as people have been using money, economic events have had a major impact on humanity.
History has been shaped by economic disasters, for better or worse. Wars have been started on their account. Conversely, historic events have never failed to impact the regional or global economy.World War 1 left Germany with a bleak economic future, which was a significant factor in the start of World War 2. The Great Depression shaped the 1930s, shaping the future of America and its immigration policies. The economic value of oil has led to war and upheaval in the Middle East and elsewhere.
The currency market, of course, was not left untouched. Every economic and political event, and every crisis, has an impact on the value of a country’s currency.
The following are 11 major historic events that in turn had a significant impact on the modern currency market at the time of occurrence, and had an impact surpassing the rise and fall of speculators or international business transactions. These events have shaped the world as it is today.
These 11 Events Explained:
- Nixon Shock
Up until 1971, major currencies had worked according to the Bretton Woods system. The system was created to stabilise economies during and after the period of the two world wars. It pegged the US dollar to the price of gold and set up fixed exchange rates, using the dollar as a reserve currency.
In 1971, the US under President Nixon unilaterally terminated the agreement. The US dollar became a free floating currency. Shortly after, the pound sterling followed suit. The Nixon shock changed the face of the currency market forever. With the dollar and pound now floating free, and other currencies following suit, the price of all the major currencies changed drastically.
- 1973 oil crisis
In 1973, Middle Eastern states placed an embargo on oil trade, in response to the US involvement in Israel’s Yom Kippur War. Unable to trade one of the most important commodities, economies went into crisis.
The 1973 crisis had an important impact on the pound sterling, which went through its own crisis in 1976. Inflation had risen, and markets thought the pound was being overvalued. It almost led to a collapse in the pound, which recovered due to government intervention.
- Apartheid’s demise
The South African rand (ZAR) was valued at $1.40 until 1982. But in the 1980s, the Apartheid system came under increasing pressure. International sanctions began to erode its value at a rapid pace, and by 1985, $1 could buy ZAR2.
The rand’s decline continued with growing uncertainty over South Africa’s future and the rand depreciated to R3.60 to the dollar in 1994.
- 1997 Asian financial crisis
Financial contagion in 1997 led to fears of an economic meltdown in Asia, which could have in turn led to a worldwide economic meltdown. The crisis started in Thailand, with an accumulation of foreign debt, leading Thailand almost to bankruptcy.
The crisis led to the collapse of the Thai baht. Urgent measures were put in place to save this important currency.
- The Gulf War
Besides its obvious costs for both Iraq and the US, the Gulf War in 1991 had a significant impact on Iraq’s economy. The UN placed sanctions on the country which had the intended effects on Iraq’s financial system.
One indirect consequence was that Iraq no longer had the Swiss printing method available to print currency. They adopted a new, inferior quality dinar. Due both to sanctions and overprinting by the government, the new notes devalued rapidly. Terror attacks have lesser impact.
- The Iraq War
Staying in the Gulf, the Iraq War started by the US in 2003, may have had its own hidden economic cause. A popular theory is that George Bush pushed for the war because Iraq had started trading oil in euros instead of dollars. Iraq was benefiting greatly from this change, but the US economy would suffer.
The currency may have been the leading factor behind the war, which serves as an example of how heavily currency can affect the world.
- 2011 Japan earthquake
What effect does a natural disaster have on an economy? What about its currency?
The heavy fallout from the worst earthquake to hit Japan in over a century led to interesting developments in the Japanese economy. While the economy suffered in the short term, the Yen’s status vacillated. Initially, the value fell sharply. Then, with repatriation and insurance from overseas, it surged. The Yen is still today one of the most important currencies in the world.
- European debt crisis
The Eurozone’s biggest crisis came in 2008 and has continued in some states to the present day. Countries had to be bailed out of debt, leading to widespread recession and economic collapse. The fallout led to a range of new regulations being introduced, changing the face of the Eurozone’s financial system.
The euro and some of Europe’s other currencies suffered and consequently fluctuated in the wake of this crisis, and it continues to be a factor in the euro’s value to this day.
- Greece’s debt crisis
Greece was one of the hardest hit nations in the Eurozone crisis. Major austerity measures were introduced and retained for years. Greece’s crisis did not end in 2008, and has continued at a varying severity ever since.
An indirect consequence of Greece’s crisis is surprisingly on the value of the Swiss franc and the property market in 2015. One of the few independent European currencies, the franc is seen as a safe haven, and Greece’s crisis continually drives people to invest in francs.
- Russian financial crisis
One of the most recent ongoing financial crises is the one currently happening in Russia. This one was actually precipitated by the collapse of Russia’s currency – the ruble (view 2015 historic currency rate table here). Causes for the collapse in the ruble include plummeting oil prices and economic sanctions.
This serves as another example in which external factors such as commodities and politics can lead to major economic mishaps.
- Brexit Decision – UK/ EU
On June 23 2016, the UK held a referendum to decide whether to they want to leave the EU. The decision was “Leave” with 51% of the votes. While Brexit supporters named June 24 as the UK independence day, the market’s response was harsh. Instantly, the GBPEUR rate has dropped from 1.34 (it hovered around that figure for a week), to 1.24, and continued to drop to 1.17 on June of 2016. 2 years later, it has continued to plummet into the currency GBPEUR rate of 1.13 (true for May, 29, 2019). More currencies reacted as per below:
– US dollar: Before the Brexit, the GBPUSD was at around 1.49, and it fell to 1.34 immediately, only to slightly recover then further decline to 1.28.
– Australian dollar: Before the Bexit, The GBPAUD was at around 1.96 and it fell to 1.82 on June 24, then recover to 1.87 and fell to 1.73.
– Canadian dollar: Before the Brexit, the GBPCAD was at around 1.95, and it fell to 1.76, a much steeper decline than the AUD and the USD, it then recovered to 1.8 and fell to 1.67.
– LIBOR Rates: View the example section on our LIBOR rate guide.
Here is how other currencies have shifted over the course of these 2 post-brexit weeks: other currencies have reacted in the same way, but the stock markets demonstrated a completely different behavior. The FTSE25 and FTSE100 have been drastically hit, which then caused panic across the globe, but in the following 2 weeks the FTSE, DJ, S&P 500 and ASX200 have completely recovered , while the European stock markets did not. The Brexit has the potential of causing a real global recession, and a lot depends on the new trade agreements between the UK and the EU.
View our additional analysis of the British Pound since the referendum:
As with any history, the purpose of understanding it is to stop it from repeating itself. When it comes to the economy, we need to be wary of the fallout of anticipated events. Oil, for example, is still a major driving factor of economies in the Middle East and throughout the world. One thing that can be guaranteed is that the price of oil will not stay stable. In 2016, commodity prices have been dropping, leading to economic uncertainty.
There is also much to learn from the various recessions that have occurred through history. While the Great Depression may seem far away, crises in the ‘90s, ‘00s and ‘10s should serve as warnings of what may come. Some speculate a global recession is on the horizon. We will have to wait and see, and in the meantime prepare, as anything might happen.
Will 2019 be as volatile as 2016’s Brexit? It is very possible. To view planned economic announcements please view our 2019 economic calendar.