Weekly Forecast – April 10
Trading volumes will be lower than usual late in the week with the Easter holidays in Europe and partial closure in US markets. International geo-political concerns will be an important factor with the potential for choppy trading conditions, especially given several important hot spots including Syria.
The US data releases are concentrated late in the week with producer prices and the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence data due on Thursday. The most important data releases will be on Friday with both the consumer prices and retail sales data. The overall market reaction could be more volatile than usual given that most European markets will be closed for holidays.
Federal Reserve Chair Yellen is due to make a speech on Monday which could have some impact on interest rate expectations, although the comments may be general in nature rather than offering specific guidance. Developments in US bond markets will be an important focus.
There are important economic data releases with the latest consumer inflation data due on Tuesday with the labour-market data due on Wednesday. The principal market focus will be whether the data has any significant impact on interest-rate expectations with the inflation data notably important on sentiment.
There are unlikely to be substantive comments surrounding the EU exit negotiations given the influence of Easter holidays.
The Euro-zone data releases are unlikely to have a major impact during the week with markets looking for any further comments from ECB officials, although there are no major speeches scheduled during the week.
Developments in the French Presidential election will be watched closely, especially as increased support for left-wing candidates will increase uncertainties surrounding the first-round outcome.
The Bank of Canada will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday and Governor Poloz will also hold a press conference following the release.
The latest Chinese trade data is scheduled for release on Thursday local tome and could have an important influence on expectations surrounding both Chinese and global demand.
Global geo-political concerns will be watched closely during the week with developments surrounding Syria an important focus. In particular, there will be concerns surrounding tensions between Russia and the US, especially if there is any further military intervention by the US in Syria.
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