Weekly Forecast – April 3
Below are the events expected in the following week, and our take on currency movements:
US economic data will be watched closely in the week ahead, although it would certainly be very dangerous to ignore political developments given the possibility of sharp moves in the dollar. Asset allocations at the start of the second quarter and beginning of the Japanese fiscal year will be important.
There are a series of important US data releases during the week which will have a significant impact on sentiment, although there may not be a major impact on immediate monetary policy trends.
The US ISM manufacturing data will be released on Monday with the services-sector data due for release on Wednesday.
The ADP employment data will also be released on Wednesday ahead of the key monthly BLS employment release on Friday.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from the March 15th FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday and Fed speakers will continue to be watched closely during the week.
US political developments will continue to be watched closely during the week and President Trump’s meetings with Chinese President Xi in Florida on Thursday and Friday will also be an important focus.
The latest UK manufacturing PMI data is due for release on Monday after a reported slowdown last month.
The construction and services-sector data will be released over the following two days and the services-sector data will be very important for confidence in the outlook.
Latest industrial production and trade data will be released on Friday.
Early trends surrounding the EU negotiations will also have a potentially significant impact on sentiment, especially if there is antagonistic stance from key EU officials.
The ECB will release the minutes from March’s policy meeting on Thursday with markets looking for any further details on background discussions and potential disagreements over futures policy. Off-the-record comments from ECB officials will also be an important focus during the week.
Developments surrounding the French Presidential election will continue to be monitored closely ahead of the April 23rd first round vote, although there has been no major shift in opinion polls over the past two weeks.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest decision on interest rates on Tuesday local time with markets expecting no change in rates with the trade data also due on the same day.
The Canadian employment data on Friday and trade data on Tuesday could have an important impact on Bank of Canada policy expectations.
Japan will release its latest Tankan survey on business confidence on Monday local time.
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